A look in to my crystal ball for 2012..I see Leica

August 29, 2011 Just for fun, News 46

Well here we are at the tail end of 2011 and good old Photokina 2012 will be coming up before you know it. Lot’s of speculation about what maybe coming from Leica but no one really knows for sure, or do they? With all of the rumors spreading about a new 50 Summicron ASPH, a new mirror-less design and even a new M10 from Leica I decided to whip out my old Crystal Ball to see if I could see anything or get some clues.

As I stared in to the ball I saw an odd camera pop up – was very foggy. It was not an M9 or M9P or M10..no, it was smaller, it was M like in its look and I saw a built in EVF. Also saw what appeared to be an M lens on it as well as another lens, pretty sexy looking. For the life of me I could not make it out though. As it spun around I saw live action on the LCD. Looked kind of pricey, I saw 3  $1000 bills float by, and some other bills. 🙂 Just as that flew by I could have sworn I saw an M with an EVF and live view and maybe even a dual viewfinder kind of like the Fuji X100. For one second I saw the eyepiece come closer and I though I saw an RF and an EVF but I could have been mistaken. Did I also see video capability? Hmmmm. I also saw a huge 10 pop up like a flash of lightning but does  that mean M10 or $10,000? If my Crystal Ball is correct, this new camera will be a huge leap forward and the 1st time Leica leaves the classic and traditional design behind to boldly go where no Leica M has gone before. Only time will tell!

That was all I saw for Leica but there could be more. My ball is quirky. Before the ball fogged up 100% I thought I saw a small mirror less Canon that looked like a Micro 4/3 camera. Call me silly but thats what I saw. Maybe my crystal ball has seen its last days, but in the past it has had a 99.8% accuracy rate. Maybe I will check again in a month or two to see if I can see anything else like a “Pro Olympus PEN” or small Nikon interchangeable lens camera (which I did see a huge N pop up for a split second, but who knows what that means).

2011 was a great camera year, let’s see if 2012 can top it!

Steve

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46 Comments

  3. Steve, you got the Canon 😀
    I only hope the Leica EVIL will be FF, not APS-C. Otherwise it will be pwned by Fuji X1-pro, I’m sure.

  5. When all others have paid for their M9 they can´t afford a new M10. I´m glad I didn´t buy a M9. Maybe I will be the only one with a M10 now. I want it to be modern pro-like as Canon and Nikon but with Leica IQ.

    • Agree. I’ve got an M8 and am now glad I held off on the M9. The rumors about both the M10 and what Ashwin has dubbed the digital CL are tempting.

  8. Is it the Digital CL that I hoped for, at around the suggested price? Oh please let it be…?

    The M10 will arrive in about 1.5 years, late 2012, if the M8.2-M9 transition holds true….

    My guess is that Leica knows its $$$ is in the M system….Thus, their line up will include:

    1. M10 with live view, hybrid VF and new tech at $8K
    2. M9.2 for the traditionalists among us, probably at the $7K price point and the sexiest of the bunch
    3. Digital CL (or whatever it’s called): Crop factor, takes M lenses, a spring board for technology for future M cameras, but coming in around 3K
    4, D-lux 5 (until it is phased out and replaced by a D-Lux 6, if it’s even in the cards…I am not sure that Leica will focus more on a high end compact if a digital CL is in the mix)
    6. X1 (phased out, that’s my guess)…

    Leica’s going to need something to compete with the NEX and M4/3 offerings, but at Leica price, which means a $3K digital CL. The M9 is a different game, full frame, still the best camera out there, and certainly the M10 will better it.

    That’s no crystal ball, just educated guessing….Steve’s got the scoop, so pay attention…

    • Ashwin

      With the current supply issues with M lenses, won’t a “Digital CL” just make the problems worse. And given that it is likely to be a crop, that’ll just make the situation for wide angles very bad, although, having said that, I may have a new use for my WATE. Now there’s a thought.

      • True, Lens production is a HUGE issue. They simply can’t make enough lenses, for a variety of reasons, to fill the demand, but that’s where Ziess and Voigtlander, 2 very capable lens manufacturers with price points substantially lower than Leica, come in, especially with consumers of a digital CL….further, eventually, leica should be able to ramp up production of its summarit line to a higher level, which should keep the prices of those lenses “relatively low”, whenever Japanese supply chain issues resultant from the tsunami are worked out….unfortunately, even Leica has been affecteed by this.

        Finally, as for wide angle lens use on the camera, it’s hard to say. Ricoh’s offering its APS-C moutn M module with microlenses and in-camera vignetting correction. I see no reason for Leica to hold back here….And yes, the WATE becomes a nice normal zoom for such a camera, albeit an expensive f/4….

        • I was thinking that Leica could use an updated M8 sensor maybe in the 12-16MP range for the new camera line. They only said it would have AT LEAST APS-C sized. That’s not a definite on size either way. It could be larger than APS-C. That would be ideal at least if it was a APS-H sensor for those used to M8 crop factor and also give it a slight edge over other APS-C + adapter options.

          There was also word during the Leica Roadshow last year that they were testing CMOS sensors for future products and that was after the X1 was already out. Whatever happens will be interesting for sure.

  9. I don’t see a new M camera being presented in 2012. Leica has produced (and probably) sold 30,000 M9 to date and an “M10” with some new features will not make many of these M9 owners jump and down with desire to own it. The megapixel race can be left for Canon/Nikon and we M owners are just happy with what the M) offers. What I REALLY would like to see is a new lens concept – The Bi-Summicron 35/50 (say 2.5), a compact (“zoom”) lens which can give you both 35 mm and 50 mm without having to change lenses. Would be a really convenient walk-around-lens IMHO.

  10. Well they have Sony knocking on the door wit 24 mpix, microlenses for better corner and CA performance. Apparently the NEX 7 Will be much better than the NEX5 to exploit manual lenses from Leica, Zeiss, etc…SO if not in stck, propos might go for the NeXT best thing

  11. What Leica really needs in 2012 is to have supply meet demand. The whole “not in stock” flag is getting old.

  12. Steve’s not exactly reaching too hard for some of his predictions. Leica’s already announced that they’ll be showing off an electronic viewfinder interchangeable lens system at Photokina 2012 that’ll be priced somewhere between the X1 and M9, and that It’ll have at least an APS-C sized sensor. They’ve also said that it’ll be m-lens compatible. If the reports are true, we’ll be seeing more and more over the next year before Photokina, too,.

    I’d love a full frame compact, X1/X100/PEN-sized camera, but I’m just having a tough time seeing that. A $3k full frame camera (that’s modern in quality) sounds almost reasonably priced … not something Leica has exactly been known for. 😉

    There are also a lot of other questions – will it mean a whole new line of lenses? Steve’s crystal ball thinks so. If so, are they going to be autofocus-capable? image-stablization?

    Based on the statements in the links below, though, it seems like Leica isn’t even sure what the final specs of the camera will be. It’ll be a fun year speculating.

    http://www.bjp-online.com/british-journal-of-photography/news/2080688/leica-launch-compact-2012
    http://www.techradar.com/news/photography-video-capture/cameras/more-leica-compact-system-camera-details-emerge-984742

  13. You know what would be great. Keep producing the m9 when the m10 comes out. $3500. Already recouped any r/d money. Though at 30,000 m9 sold, they probably haven’t. No wonder the cameras cost so much their money isn’t coming from the bodies!

    Sony with focus peaking could be tue affordable solution for m mount lenses. Time will tell.

  14. I just wish Leica come out an X100 similar (maybe I should say classic style) with interchangable lenses capacity. Less expensive so I can afford it. ;-P

  16. I expect Leica will stick with their trademark look and user experience rather than try to beat Nikon/Sony/Canon/Fuji at their own game – they’re just too big and well established. Just look at the ease with which they can churn out an X100 or NEX-7 – full of cutting edge technology backed by decades of development and at a price point that Leica can’t hope to match.

    One option would probably be 2 M lines – a traditional (i.e. M9P but with minor tweaks and sensor updates), and a more technologically advanced one to attract a different market. This way they keep their old market and attract a new one.

    I just hope Leica doesn’t lose its emphasis on the simplicity that makes the camera an almost invisible part of the photographic process. (Plus less features means less to go wrong and less to have to constantly update. It’d be a shame for Leicas to become as disposable as the rest of the digital camera market.)

    Interesting to see what happens – but ultimately a camera’s just a camera.

    Now I’m off out to take some pictures.

    • Seconded. New technology is neat, but Leica is special just because they retain the best things about film cameras while incorporating quality digital guts.

      I think two separate lines would be perfect. An M10P and a high-tech M10 would offer the best of both worlds.

    • What … you mean to say Leica DOESN’T have years of cutting edge technology, backed by decades of development experience, behind it’s products? I can’t believe that. Oh – oh, must go, the medical team are doing the rounds and I need to hide my writing crayons inside my straitjacket ….

  17. A year and a half later than nex 7 and many years behind mft, $3500, and a first attempt at technology.

    Not a recipe for success IMO but I’m sure the dot will attract many. Ff for 3500 maybe has a chance. I’m betting by the time we see it we see ff from other companies.

  18. Read somewhere that 24 Mp is about the outside limit that the human eye can handle in terms of resolution. So what really is the point of a 30 Mp sensor ?

    • Most MF cameras (phase one, hasselblad) have over 30mp of resolution.

      35mm film has an estimated 24mp of resolution. Medium format film obviously has more than that, so you might ask why anyone would ever shoot medium format — to say nothing of large format.

      There are two bottlenecks on image quality — the resolution of the sensor (film or digital) and the resolution of the lens. Leica lenses are capable of extremely high resolution, which is why they are so highly sought after (and expensive). If a new sensor can deliver Phase One or Hasselblad-quality images with Leica lenses in a portable camera, that’s well worth it.

    • This doesn’t make sense. The resolution that the eye can discern would depend entirely on the size of the print. More mp = bigger print without loss of apparent resolution.

      Not that most of us print large enough to NEED 29 mp…

      • I can tell a medium format film image from a 35mm film image with ease, even when the two images are cropped similarly, regardless of how large it’s printed. Most photographers can.

        That’s why people shoot MF — not because they’re going to blow the images up to billboard size, but because the superior resolution is easily apparent even in smaller print sizes.

        • Yeah, I agree that there are differences in the tones that come from different format sizes. I was actually responding to Jimmy’s statement that the human eye “can’t handle” the additional resolution.

  19. Does the magic Leica crystal ball have a left-handed M like the one currently being used in the upper left corner of the header bar? 😉

      • I happened to see the original of that image come through my FB stream with Steve tagged in it and remembered that he was facing the other way in it. So more elephant memory than eagle eye.

  20. My shiny ball says: “You’ll need more cash to keep up with the times ahead”. Just bought a Leica M4-P today in black chrome. More in my budget probably than any new M10’s ahead.

  21. I have heard rumors that the M line will split into two — with the standard M9.2/10 offering “features” like live view, video, and slick redesign, while the M9P/M10P is a classic purists camera, stripped down in its features.

    All I want in the next “M” is a better sensor — something on par with Nikon/Canon’s flagship cameras. Better dynamic range, better high ISO, better color, sharper images.

    If the sensor is not a big step forward, I’m not interested.

    • In many respects the M9 already HAS a better sensor than Nikon/Sony – the Leica CCD sensor has different qualities than a CMOS for sure. Maybe not as good at high ISO, but in many cases more pleasing to the eye.

      I don’t want Leica to be the same as Nikon/ Canon. There is no point.

      • The M9 sensor simply doesn’t test as well on DXOmark testing, which I can vouch for from looking at the images.

        Leica glass is exceptional; the M9 sensor isn’t. The M9’s great virtue is being able to use Leica glass on a classic rangefinder body.

        Leica Rumors is saying today that the new camera will use the new 29MP Kodak sensor, which should deliver resolution that gets the most out of Leica lenses. This is going to be a big step.

        Keep in mind that Canon/Nikon are both introducing new flagship sensor lines that are supposedly a generational leap forward, so Leica has to compete. The Kodak sensor should do that.

      • Thanks for putting a bit of reason in all these speculations. Experiencing what they want … but always leave a Classic line.

        Sorry for my limited English

  22. Leica said, sorry, magic ball said that it would be “at least an aps-c sensor”
    which format does the magic ball leans to? does it imply AF?

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